I separated a reasonable-sounding conclusion from a sound one. A person or language model can produce an orderly explanation from partial data or a narrow premise that never appears in the answer.

Questions from the original essay

  1. Write down the assumption that defines the starting point.
  2. Check the source for missing groups, incentives and outdated data.
  3. Find a counter-example that the explanation would need to survive.
  4. Ask who is absent from the initial group or data set.
  5. Revisit the decision when outcomes contradict its reasoning.

An explanation shows how a conclusion was assembled. The premise still needs its own evidence, especially when the answer arrives with enough polish to discourage another question.